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Bulls Position for Potential Upside in Event-Driven Divestment Well Telegraphed

by | May 4, 2025

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG) saw a lot of bullish activity into the sharp earnings sell-off that eventually reversed higher and to recap now has 5300 June $50 calls, 2500 June $55 calls, 2000 June $65 calls, 1500 June $57.5 calls, 1350 June $47.5 calls, 1000 January $55 calls and 2000 May $55 calls bought in open interest. SMG shares are nearing a key base/value breakout on a move above $55 this week. Scotts Miracle-Gro is a 150-year-old company with a strong portfolio of leading brands in the US consumer lawn and garden industry focused on driving organic growth through pricing power, innovation, and strategic investments in advertising, R&D, and supply chain optimization. While the Hawthorne Hydroponics segment has faced challenges, the company is exploring options to exit this business and return to being predominantly a lawn and garden company. Lawn & Garden has historically been recession resilient and SMG only has 5% of goods exposed to tariffs. SMG with a $3.1B market cap now trades 13X Earnings, 9.5X EBITDA and 6.4X FCF with a 4.9% dividend yield, valuation at the 6th percentile of its 10-year range. In the latest quarter, SMG delivered double-digit increases in consumer takeaway, gained market share, and built momentum. SMG also mentioned divesting Hawthorne to driver stronger margins and reduce the cannabis-tied volatility in shares.

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