Management Commentary 11-29-2021
Church and Dwight (CHD) M&A call detailing the rationale for its TheraBreath deal…. “We see TheraBreath as a perfect tuck-in acquisition for our Oral Care business with $100 million of sales projected for ’22, high gross margins and the ability to deliver annual sales growth that exceeds our 3% Evergreen model thereafter. TheraBreath competes in the broad mouthwash category, which is a $1.6 billion category. The alcohol-free subcategory has been a steady grower, averaging about 4.5% annual growth the last few years. And TheraBreath’s double-digit growth has outpaced the category over the past few years, and the brand’s growth has largely been driven by incremental retailer distribution. TheraBreath is the #2 brand in the nonalcohol mouthwash category in the U.S. with a 14% share. We expect 15% net sales growth in 2022, which follows double-digit growth for each of the past 3 years. Strong consumption and steady retail distribution gains remain tailwinds for this business. ACV today stands at 68%, and we believe we can continue to drive additional distribution by leveraging Church & Dwight’s capabilities, which exceed those of the former owner. Currently, less than 10% of sales are international, so we expect to leverage our international footprint for added distribution. The product is currently co-packed, which makes it asset light, and the gross margin is in excess of our corporate gross margin.”
Fidelity Info (FIS) at Stephens Investment Conference on the SMB business…. “And then the last piece is our SMB business. It’s about 28% of revenue. It’s really where the disruption fears focus. SMB in the U.S. is about a 7% to 9% growth business in terms of the TAM. And it’s one that has very low barriers to entry, very high attrition rates. Pricing is really rich. And so it makes it relatively easy for new players to enter that space and compete based on a new technology. Our approach to serving that market is to leverage our strength in enterprise to enable technology providers to do just that, provide the back end and/or the payments processing capability to software developers who come in and serve that space. We’ve got an ecosystem of well over 3,000 partners that have very deep vertical expertise not only in restaurant and retail but really across the gamut of verticals there that have enabled us to win share in that business. I think with the churn there, we think we can grow upper single digits in SMB, similar to the TAM. To the extent that we pivot downstream with e-comm, then obviously that provides upside there as well. So we actually feel really good about our position in Merchant Solutions. We think that, that enterprise-led capability, the fact that the consumer is moving online and we’re a leading player there and our ability to enable new entrants into the SMB space give us a lot of arrows in the quiver to continue to outgrow the total market TAM, which is about 8% to 10%, across our merchant business and grow the total merchant business low double digits. So a big area of focus, but one where I think there’s a little bit of misunderstanding of the importance of scale, positioning and the ability for some small players to grow in a — in different niches of the market.”
Avalara (AVLR) at Stephens Investment Conference on the $15B TAM outlined at the May Analyst Day and International opportunity…. “Well, the revenue mix is like 8% international area. The $15 billion is not an international number, that’s a U.S.-only number, just so you know. And we have not quantified the international opportunity. We’ve said in the past that we think it’s multiples of the U.S., just extrapolating a number of businesses, international versus U.S. and GDP and all that stuff. I would say that international is complex. There’s a lot — whereas every state in the U.S. has different rules around tax. You’ve got all these other countries, and they all have meaningfully different rules as well. You got more and more businesses doing intercountry cross-border commerce, which not only you’re selling in the U.S., you’ve got to deal with sales tax, you’re selling in EU, you’ve got VAT. You’re selling into many different areas, you’ve got multiple different tax regimes. You got cross-border customs duties, tariffs to deal with. So again, it’s our friend. This is all our friend. The more you do cross-border transactions, intercountry transactions, the more complexity and the more status quo is difficult to deal with. So — we haven’t quantified it yet. We think it’s very early innings. We think it’s — we’re earlier in the international journey than we are in the U.S. journey. And I think that there’s plenty of market to go get over time, we just got to execute on.”