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Management Commentary 12-9-2021

by | Dec 9, 2021

MSCI (MSCI) at Barclays Business Services Conference on ESG and the investment industry… “So that global economy needs to go from primary reliance on fossil fuel energy to renewable energy. That will create a major transformation in everything we do, whether individuals and households or businesses or governments or municipalities. We believe that capital, which is in our world of the finance, the investment and finance industry, investment is asset owners, asset managers of all types; and the finance industry being the banks and broker dealers and the like. We believe that, that industry will be at the forefront. It will be at the beginning of this transformation. So this is a perfect type of opportunity for MSCI because we already are a large provider of tools for the investment industry. And a lot of what we do is data models and technology. So my take away from Glasgow was not only a confirmation of what we were doing, but also we have to accelerate dramatically what we’re doing at MSCI to ensure that we provide the tools that our clients are crying for, to understand what is in my portfolio, how many carbon automations, what do I know, how do I transition, how I do this, how do I build models and all of that. So we are dramatically accelerating our investment in this area. So we believe that this is an incredible opportunity for us. It’s a great opportunity for the asset management industry, the investment industry, but it’s also a big risk.”

General Motors (GM) at Deutsche Bank Auto Conference on the EV product strategy…. “So I think the answer to the first question is through — and I’ll try to make this brief, through all of our background, all the way even to EV1, and Chevrolet Volt, and Chevrolet Volt, I think 1 of the things we realized is we needed to create an architecture and a platform that would be able to deliver a portfolio of vehicles, and vehicles like SUVs and CUVs and trucks and full-size SUVs. And in order to do those profitably, we need to do it at great scale and reuse. And so I’m not going to repeat the whole Ultium story, but it’s essentially one battery cell that’s built into a module of cells and then that modules reused in all these vehicles we do. So it’s an architectural high scale, high industrialized approach with significant value that GM is now exercising in the supply chain to get to the leading edge of the battery cost. So it’s not about the first entry or even the second. It’s about the entire architecture in the portfolio of entries and the overall scale and cost. And by the way, we believe EV life starts at 300 miles of range, not 200 or 250. We’ve been there. We’ve done that. I think when you really start to get mass adoption, people interested, it’s got to start with the 3. So that’s why Ultium packs will deliver 300, 350, 400, 450 plus miles of range, not 200 or 250. Starting at 300. So I think with that greater approach, I think it’s natural when we have a terrific new architecture and capability to bring it out in some very exciting models, like a HUMMER EV, Hummer SUV EV, a beautiful Cadillac LYRIQ, a Silverado E, a Sierra E, if you will. And in a very short period of time, maybe like a month or so, if you know what I mean, we’re going to start to roll out more of the details of those programs. And one of the programs that we’ve talked about is we — I think we’ve called it an Equinox-size EV. This is a $30,000 EV that’s going to have 300-plus miles of range. This one is also coming out quite soon. So more details to be announced in the very, very near future. And in terms of the last question, I’m not going to say anything negative about our competitors, but I will focus on — when you see the Silverado and Sierra, and when you see that $30,000 Equinox — when you see them at 300 and 350 and 400 miles of range, that’s the right discussion, and that’s the right platform and we’ll have a significant number of vehicles that I think will really capture the hearts and minds of our customers. And that’s our plan, and that’s what we’ve been running and can’t wait to do it.”

Chewy (CHWY) earnings call on Chewy Health…. “Continuing our innovation streak in Chewy Health, we recently announced that we will offer an exclusive suite of pet health insurance and wellness and preventative plans in partnership with starting in spring 2022. Since its inception, the mission of Chewy Health has been making pet health care more accessible and affordable.  We are excited about the initial success of Practice Hub and look forward to expanding the rollout to the broader vet community. When evaluating the potential contribution of Chewy Health to our long-term objectives and the $35 billion pet health TAM, it is worth emphasizing that presently less than 15% of Chewy customers are Chewy Health customers. So the opportunity within our base of 20 million customers is meaningful, not to mention the opportunity from pet parents who are not yet Chewy customers. Integrating new health care services like insurance, wellness plans, connect with a vet and Practice Hub with our existing operations, where we have nearly tripled our run rate pharmacy revenue over the short 10-quarter period since our IPO will help us drive deeper penetration into this vertical with our customers and vet partners.”

Axcelis (ACLS) Investor Day on its markets and what is driving semi demand… “First, as you know, the semiconductor market is very strong and as a result, is driving very high levels of wafer fab equipment spending. The markets driving this high level of spending, particularly the significant growth in the mature process technology segment has translated into approximately a 2x increase in the implant TAM over a very short period of time, bringing it to about $2 billion in size. Our Purion products are well positioned across key markets like power devices and CMOS image sensors. This has and will continue to drive Axcelis revenues to record levels over the next few years. Our new models, which we are unveiling today include $850 million of revenue in the next 1 to 2 years and $1 billion in approximately 3 years. And I just want to make sure that everyone realizes that these models are based on an implant only business. I’d like to add a bit more color to what is driving growth in the semiconductor market. Earlier, I mentioned significant growth in the mature process technology segment, but really all market segments are growing. This is causing high fab utilization at all customers and resulting in strong system sales and service as they expand their capacity. We’re in a cycle right now where this growth has led to significantly more CapEx spending as customers work hard to chase demand. And there are a couple of things driving this strong demand. The first is the fact that the fundamentals remain in place for long-term growth, and we’ve talked for a very long time about communications and big data driving demand for multiple types of devices. More recently, as a result of cars becoming computers on wheels, as Pat Gelsinger recently referred to them, demand for power devices and image sensors has accelerated. In addition, we are all aware of a few unique environmental factors, the current chip shortage and what I’ll call the arms race that multiple governments are in to attract and build fabs in their respective countries, particularly leading edge logic fabs.”

iRobot (IRBT) Analyst Day on how it is expanding its TAM…. “There’s another opportunity in front of us with this rapidly growing and accessible customer base who is excited about the iRobot brand and is excited about the way that we understand them and their home. We’re taking a step into growing our total addressable market. Today, 22 million — sorry, 20 billion of TAM is our market opportunity as we estimated. By adding air purification, we grow that by another 10 billion. And by looking at how we can leverage our connected customer, our brand strength, and this AI and home understanding technology to take products, which are simply premium and turn them into differentiated and intelligently energized to do a better job, we believe that we have a right to play in well over $200 billion of addressable market, all brought together under the roof of the Smart Home. Managing the Smart Home, making the Smart Home more efficient, enabling the Smart Home to be a secure location and ultimately making the Smart Home a healthier place to live and raise your family. So, looking at our financial model, it lays out like this. Revenue enjoying a 16% to 18% CAGR, bringing us up well over 2 billion, 2.4 billion to 2.6 billion. Gross profit margin, accelerating to 43% and to set expectations, that is not going to be a linear march. In 2022, we still see significant headwinds based on the elevated cost of shipping and tariffs, although we believe that those headwinds will ease, allowing ’23 to start to accelerate for that 43%, which we will achieve in 2024.”

Fluence (FLNC) earnings call on its large and growing markets…. “I would like to highlight this tremendous total addressable market, starting with energy storage products. BNEF is forecasting a 24% compounded annual growth rate between 2020 and 2030. This equates to over 34 gigawatts of new installations in the year 2030 alone. For reference, at the end of the quarter, we had an aggregate of 3.7 gigawatts of energy storage products deployed and contracted. Also, based on BNEF forecast, energy storage services are expected to grow 31% compounded annually between 2020 and 2030. This equates to over 193 gigawatts of cumulative installed services base. For reference, at the end of the quarter, we had approximately 2.7 gigawatts under management and contracted for our energy services. And most exciting is the enormous total addressable market for our Fluence IQ digital platform, where the TAM is nearly 8,000 gigawatts. The TAM is so vast because we can optimize not only third-party energy storage products, but also pure renewable assets such as wind, solar and hydro that do not have any storage components. This means the growth potential of Fluence IQ is not limited by installed energy base. As of the end of the quarter, Fluence IQ is optimizing or has contracted 4.7 gigawatts. So it’s easy to see why we are extremely excited about Fluence IQ future.”

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