Vera Therapeutics (VERA) shares are -45% YTD but recent positioning suggests potential for upside over the next two months. Back on 2/14 the June $40/$60 call spreads bought 1000X, on 4/9 the May $22.5 calls sold to open 2000X, and on 4/23 the June $30 calls bought 4500X followed by a 4/25 buyer of 2,350 June $22.50 calls, high Delta positioning in a small cap Biotech. VERA does have 10.3% of its float short though down from 13% peak levels in March.

Vera Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of transformative treatments for patients with serious immunological diseases. The company’s lead product candidate consists of atacicept, a fully humanized TACI-Fc fusion protein that binds B-cell activating factor (BAFF) and A proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL), which is self-administered at home as a subcutaneous injection being evaluated for the treatment of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). It is also developing MAU868, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of BK viremia infections that has completed phase 2 clinical trial; and VT-109, a novel BAFF/APRIL dual-inhibitor B cell maturation antigen (BCMA) molecule to treat B cell mediated autoimmune diseases.

VERA has a $1.48B market cap and trades 2.3X Cash and 6X FY27 projected sales. VERA will report 36-week primary efficacy endpoint data from the ORIGIN Phase 3 trial for atacicept this quarter, the reasoning behind the June positioning. VERA expects accelerated approval in 2H25 with a potential PDUFA and commercial launch in 2026 as the best-in-class IgAN therapy. Vera’s strengthened balance sheet, bolstered by two 2024 equity offerings that amount to about $600M in net proceeds, positions it well through potential 2026 commercialization.

Evercore is positive Vera with a $75 target for atacicept attributes, as it will be one of the first truly disease modifying therapies for IgAN with unique mechanism of action and is the only company with 2-year data showing stabilization of estimated glomerular filtration rate. Cantor is at Overweight with a $100 target positive into the trial results. JPMorgan continues to see a trade into the mid-$40s per share for Vera shares on positive ORIGIN-3 data. Wells Fargo and Goldman also defended shares during the February sell-off. Wells likes the Vera setup into major 2025 catalysts and sees a large opportunity for atacicept in the $10B IgAN market.

VERA options are pricing in around a 50% move for June and IV Skew is bullish inverted making call spreads attractive. June 22.5/40 call spreads at 4.50 or better are a nice high risk, high reward trade.