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Seasonal Stock Setup: Beverage Giant Breaking Above Value

by | Nov 8, 2021

Starbucks (SBUX) – Keeping with the theme of strong Consumer Discretionary stocks, Starbucks recently reported earnings and gapped lower but swiftly ramped higher back above its 200 day EMA and YTD VPOC. Now seeing a 8/21 EMA bull cross as the stock holds above monthly value. SBUX has great seasonality in November, being up 8 of the last 10 years and posting an average return of +6.4%. This is actually the best monthly average return in any calendar month. When a stock quickly reverses off lows like it recently did that generally bodes well for a solid swing low being in place. With many names extended we could start to see money flow into safer names like SBUX which are still off their 52 week highs. On the upside for SBUX there is some resistance in the 120 area but now breaking above its multi month downtrend line points to a run higher. The name also benefits from the travel and leisure theme gaining momentum into 2022 as COVID worries dissipate. Being up just 7% YTD, SBUX can play catch up back to new highs as November starts a historically stronger time period. SBUX options have shown a tilt to more bullish bias lately with the January 2024 $75 puts sold to open on 11/1 for $470k and on 9/9 the June $115 calls bought for over $2.5M still sit in open interest.

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