Seasonal Stock Setup: Payment Leader Ready to Recover Into Seasonal Strength
Mastercard (MA) – The payment space has been hit harder than the market the last few months but the credit card processors like Mastercard and Visa have bounced nicely off recent lows and look to be starting new uptrends as MA has now closed back over the 200 day EMA and seeing a 8/21 EMA bull cross. This comes as the seasonality for MA tends to see bullish bias in January and February the last 5 years. Both months have been up 4 of the last 5 years for an average gain in January of +4% and about +2.6% in Feb. The stock is basically flat YTD after seeing a high of 401 early in the spring. The recent correction showed some bullish RSI divergence into lows and now RSI back above 50 showing the bullish trend in place. A move back above 355 monthly value high can see a rally to 364 YTD VPOC while the upper edge of yearly value is just under 375. The weekly chart of MA simply looks like a long consolidation for the last 6 months and now has built energy to try to attack new highs into 2022. Options flows have had a bullish bias for weeks now as the stock rebounded off oversold lows. The January $310 calls that were bought on 12/1 at $15.50 for over $2.3M are still in open interest after already doubling in price. Last week saw a buyer for $6.4M of the January $340 calls and today a buyer opened over 1000 of the February $350 calls at $16.50 for $1.7M.