The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for the third straight week and closed at the value range of the three-month consolidation going back to mid-January. We’re coming up on a significant spot at 4225 which aligns with both the 1/24 spike low but also VWAP from the October 2020 low which sparked the year-long rally up to 4800. A successful defense of that range also sets up the potential for an inverted head and shoulders around the January and March lows while holding above the lows made after the initial Russia/Ukraine news. A bounce higher has room to the recent breakdown at 4370. On a bigger timeframe, the 4400-4450 range now has a lot of notable supply with a confluence of anchored VWAPs from the 2/24 low, 3/29 highs and start of the year.   A breakdown under 4425 has notable levels at 4165 and then 4125.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 4/20 showed a slight rise in bulls to 18.9% from 15.8% while bears fell to 43.9% from 48.4%. Neutral sentiment rose to 37.3% from 35.7%. Bullish sentiment overall was below 20% for the second straight week, historically low levels of optimism. NAAIM Exposure rose to 74.05 vs 63.29 prior and remains in neutral territory. Lipper Fund flows had $14.7B in outflows from equities and follows $9.6B of outflows last week, one of the largest exoduses in recent history. As of Friday’s close, there were 39 new highs versus 1,040 new lows, extremely weak breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 28.2% while those above their 200-MA was 26.5%. NYSE Summation (NYSI) fell on Friday to -253 and remains firmly below its 8-EMA in a cautious signal. NASI is also below its 8-EMA. Cumulative AD remains in a bear trend while NYMO was -46.5 on Friday, weak but not yet near an extreme. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 40 on Friday, down from 45 the week prior.