Trading Options with an Edge
Select Page

Member Content

Match Group (MTCH) Earnings Preview

by | Oct 31, 2021

Match Group (MTCH) reporting earnings on 11/2 after the close with the Street looking for $0.54 on $802.22M in sales, a 25% increase Y/Y. Next quarter is guided to $0.56/$838.52M while the FY is $2.10 and $3.02B. Shares have closed higher in four of the last six with an average closing move of 8.2% and a max move of 24.16%. The current implied move is 6%. The $43.2B company trades 54X earnings, 16X sales, and 54X cash. MTCH has seen their Tinder business perform well during the 2021 Summer season as more people got vaccinated and more social gatherings went to full capacity while concerns about Japan still linger as they entered another lockdown. The company is coming off a strong quarter with their best revenue growth since 2018. In Q2, they closed their deal for HyperConnect and expect to see positive updates on integration and their growth outlook for the 2H.  MTCH could post upside to long-term estimates after the recent Apple decision as in-app purchase fees account for a majority of their cost of revenues. And, this likely benefits margins going forward in a significant way. Analysts have an average target for shares of 165 with a Street High $190. Jefferies positive on Q3 on 10/12 noting that third-party data checks support Q3 revenue beats, with particular strength from Tinder, Bumble, and Badoo, while the recent ruling in the fight between Apple (AAPL) and Epic could serve as another upside driver to EBITDA estimates for both companies. MSCO a buyer of stock into weakness as the second half pent up demand thesis appears on track and should only accelerate into 2022. Short interest is 5.75%. Hedge fund ownership fell 4%. Edgewood a buyer of 4.9M shares while Lone Pine adding another 1.5M shares. On the chart, MTCH trading in a big weekly flag under $170 with a breakout targeting $210 long-term. Shares jumped up to $180 on recent news but have faded hard and back-filling a low-volume zone to $149 where we could see a potential reversal. Options flows have been bullish with buyers recently in the November $155 calls, June $170 calls, and January $155 calls.

Not a Member yet?
Subscribe to
OptionsHawk Premium
Subscribe

Options Hawk Max

$300 | 30 days

  • Options Hawk Trading Hub Live Chat
  • Hawk’s Market Blitz
  • Spotlight Trades (2 Per Week)
  • Market Recap
  • Weekly Earnings Snapshots
  • Live Mock Portfolio
  • 1 on 1 Access
  • Hawk’s Trader Toolbox
  • Street Research
  • OptionsHawk Research
  • Daily Options Radar
  • OptionHawk’s Weekly Radar Report
  • Options Hawk Market Outlook Access
  • Daily Earnings Grid
  • Weekly and Monthly OpEx Sheets
  • Notable Options Database
  • OptionsHawk Quarterly Market Brief

More About this Plan

Options Hawk Elite

$149 | 30 days

  • Hawk’s Market Blitz
  • Spotlight Trades (2 Per Week)
  • Market Recap
  • Weekly Earnings Snapshots
  • OptionsHawk Research
  • Daily Options Radar
  • OptionHawk’s Weekly Radar Report
  • Options Hawk Market Outlook Access
  • Daily Earnings Grid
  • OptionsHawk Quarterly Market Brief

More About this Plan