Seasonal Stock Setup: Agriculture Stock Poised to Revisit Highs into Year End
CF Industries (CF) – CF is a fertilizer name in the Ag space that has seen some strong trends this year as the stock recently rallied from 45 in mid September to a high of 68 before pulling back to its 55 EMA this month. The stock has recovered back into monthly value and above 8/21 EMA’s which are about to cross bullishly. CF has seasonal strength between November thru January over the last 10 years. December specifically has been up 7 of 10 years with an average return of +2%. The last 5 years has seen CF up 4 of 5 Decembers for an average gain of +3.8%, so both the short and longer term seasonal aspect looks solid. The stock has gained about 61% year to date in a strong trend and as long as CF keeps riding the 55 day EMA higher it’s likely to continue. CF has an upside monthly VPOC overhead near 65 as a first target but then can see new highs into 70 above that. CF doesn’t see a lot of large dollar options activity but back on 10/18 a buyer opened 5000 of the January $65 calls for $2.60 which remains in open interest.