The S&P 500 (ES_F) suffered its worst week since mid-January with the Dow notching its fifth straight week of losses amid concerns around the situation in Ukraine and uncertainty about Fed policy ahead of the FOMC. We’re back at VWAP from the Sept/Oct double-bottom in late 2020 and remain above the 2/24 lows but the path of least resistance remains lower with the broader bear trend intact. The 8, 21- and 55-EMA all remain sloping down and the 21-day was resistance on Friday as sharp rallies continue to run into aggressive sellers. A move under 4138.75 has room to 4,100 and then 4031. Ultimately, a breakdown looks poised to move back to the March 2021 balance breakout area near 3975.   A move higher has resistance at 4257, 4323 and then 4375. There’s significant confluence between 4425 and 4460 with the 200-MA, YTD VWAP, and the declining 55-EMA.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 3/9 saw bullish responses fall to 24% vs 30.4% prior while bearish responses rose to 45.8% from 41.4%. Neutral sentiment rose to 30.2% from 28.2% prior. Optimism is back at an extreme while pessimism remains well-above the long-term average. NAAIM Exposure for the week rose a tick to 42.58 versus 30.3 prior and remains overly pessimistic. Lipper Fund flows had $12.5B of inflows to equities, the largest in five weeks. As of Friday’s close, there were 114 new highs versus 786 new lows, weak breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 26.4% while those above their 200-day was 24.8%. NYSI remained flat near -715 and just below its 8-EMA, waiting for confirmation in one way or the other. NASI is also just below its 8-EMA after trading flat for the week. Cumulative AD remains in a bear trend. CBOE Equity P/C 50-MA remains neutral. CNN Fear and Greed was 14 and down from 17 last week, ‘extreme fear’ remains.