The S&P 500 had its best week since November 2020, closing back above YTD VWAP and its 55-EMA after the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018 and the situation in Ukraine continues to be analyzed. We broke back inside of March value last week and nearing monthly VPOC at 4475 which could provide a near-term spot for consolidation after the big run. There’s also a high-volume node from early February in focus as well with a VPOC at 4508.75. An extended move higher would target the value high for March near 4540 and then 4590 which is the low-end of value from November/December. Support below is at the rising 8- and 21-EMA at 4330, the prior balance breakout at 4300, and then down near 4240. Momentum is improving quickly but not yet into extreme overbought levels – even if we are on a short-term basis. RSI is back above 55 and MACD had a bullish crossover on 3/15 but remains in a negative trend overall.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 3/16 saw bullish responses fall to 22.5% from 24% while bearish responses rose to 49.8% from 45.8%. Neutral sentiment fell to 27.8% from 30.2%. Overall, both bullish and bearish sentiment remains at extremes. NAAIM Exposure rose to 46.68 from 42.58 and remains overly pessimistic. Lipper Fund flows had $3.1B of outflows for equities, the first exodus in five weeks. As of Friday’s close, there were 120 new highs versus 62 new lows, improving breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 47.5% while those above their 200-day was 32.2%, both improving but not at extremes. NYSI finally broke back above the 8-EMA last week for the first time since mid-January. NASI also had a strong break back above its 8-EMA. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA rose to 0.56 but remains neutral. NYSE Cumulative AD remains in a bearish trend. CNN Fear and Greed rose to 37 from 15 the week prior.