The S&P 500 (ES_F) extended its recent run higher last week closing right at the top of March value and a multi-week balance from February.  We broke out of a weekly bull wedge last week and plenty of room to run on the longer-term time frame with both MACD and RSI just starting to curl higher off their recent oversold lows. But, on the daily and shorter timeframe, the S&P continues to look stretched and eyeing a consolidation through both price and time between 4550 to 4450. The 8- and 21-EMA are sloping higher and likely act as support on initial tests around 4451.50 and 4390.50 respectively. The 4400 level is also a psychologically key spot to hold and aligns with the February VPOC. A move above has upside to 4455 and then 4600 with an extended upside target near 4635. Notable areas of liquidity from last week include 4512, 4480, 4436, and 4425-4422.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 3/23 showed a jump in bulls to 32.8% from 22.5% prior while bears fell to 35.4% from 49.8%. Neutral sentiment rose to 31.7% from 27.8%. This is the highest optimism and lowest pessimism readings, respectively, since January. NAAIM Exposure rose to 52.69 from 46.68 but remains overly pessimistic. Lipper Fund flows had $11.3B of inflows to equities and follows the $12.5B inflow from 3/9. As of Friday’s close we had 333 new highs versus 413 new lows, even breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 51.9% while those above their 200-MA was 34.3%, both continuing to improve. NYSI continued its strong bounceback and remains above its 8-EMA in a bullish signal. NASI is well above its 8-EMA as well. Cumulative AD remains in a bearish trend but starting to show signs of a reversal. NYMO closed at 46.09 and somewhat over-extended in the near-term. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is 0.50 and complacent. CNN Fear and Greed is 47 and Neutral, up from 39 last week.