The S&P 500 (SPX) put in a weekly topping tail candle after a very strong two week run, a potential sign of trend exhaustion and could portend consolidation and balance in the current range. Momentum starting to show signs of pulling in with both MACD and RSI near overextended levels and turning lower. The 8-EMA is starting to flatten out late in the week and we could see buyers defend the 4500 zone early in the week. However, more notable support below is where the rising 21- and 55-EMA are just below at 4455-4465 which aligns with March VPOC.  The top of April value is at 4425, an extended target. Resistance above is at the 4570-4575 zone while the 4610 area is an extended target.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 3/30 saw bulls fall to 31.9% vs 32.8% prior while bears fell to 27.5% from 35.4% prior. Neutral sentiment jumped to 40.6% from 31.7%, the highest level since January 2020. NAAIM Exposure rose to 79.72 and now back in neutral territory after spending nearly a month near overly pessimistic levels. Lipper Fund flows saw $3.8B of inflows to equities. As of Friday’s close, there were 198 new highs versus 201 new lows. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 56.2% while those above their 200-MA was 34.9%. NYSI and NASI both continued to rise strongly and remain well above their respective 8-EMA. Cumulative AD continued to rebound and highest level since mid-February. NYMO is back at 34.5 and neutral. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is neutral at 0.55. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 47 and flat from last week.