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  • Market Views

    5/2/2016

    Technical View:

    The S&P closed lower this week, breadth beginning to show some short-term signs of exhaustion, and closed below the trio of short-term moving averages for the first time since mid-February when the rally began. We opened below and tested the 20-EMA briefly on Friday at 2,073 before fading into 2,080, a big range from early April. The 50-EMA is below at 2,040, a key spot below which also represent the 23.6% Fibonacci of the recent move. The 200-EMA below at 2,020 and 38.2% Fibonacci at 1,995 the intermediate-term targets lower. The 8-week EMA at 2,050 was supportive on Friday and if we can gather traction and form a higher low here against the April range, the 8/13 EMA at 2,085 is the first resistance. We enter a seasonally weak period this week with May to October historically a sluggish period for stocks and continue with a big rush of earnings which will help shape sentiment.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed a decline of 6% in bullish responses to 27.4%, continuing to drop far below the long-term average of 38.6%. Neutral responses rose 1.4% to 44.0% and bearish responses rose 4.7% to 28.6%. Neutral responses remain elevated to the long-term average. The NAAIM Exposure Index slipped modestly to 74.19 but remains above the December levels. Lipper Fund Flows for the week showed equity inflows of $0.1B and $10.2B in outflows from taxable bonds. Equities have seen outflows 13 of the past 17 weeks while bonds have seen inflows 15 of the past 17 weeks. The percentage of S&P stocks below their 50-MA fell to 68% this week, the second week of declines and third in the past month, while the percentage above their 200-MA fell to 70.4%. NYSE Summation hit 1,215.23, the highest level since 2012. Cumulative TICK continued to make new highs. On Friday, the NYSE saw 101 new highs and 11 new lows with the advance/decline volume ratio at 0.66. CBOE Index Put/Call ratio closed at 1.4 while Equity Put/Call hit 0.86, highest level since March 22nd. NYMO closed the week at -8.80, falling below the 200-MA and under the 50-MA all week. SKEW Index closed at 126.49.

  • Daily Freebies

    May 2nd, 2016

    General Dynamics (GD) buyer of 7,000 November $150 calls at $4, rolls out of 4,000 November $140 calls at $8.60 to $8.70

    Caesarstone (CSTE) up sharply from earlier May $37.50 call buys 700X at $2.05 and now trading over 1,500 up to $2.35. CSTE will report results 5-4 and reports from Calcalist on 4/12 that Sdot Yam Kibbutz is considering selling its entire stake.

    Maxim Integrated (MXIM) shares have pulled back after a solid earnings report and trying to bounce on the 20 week EMA $35.50, a buyer of 1,000 June $37 calls here for $0.90, seen as a potential M&A target

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  • Recent Highlights

    RECENT HIGHLIGHTED TRADES

    * Closed Expedia (EXPE) Calls +121.4% on 12/15

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    * Closed Citi (C) Calls +129.7% on 11/6

    * Closed Oracle (ORCL) Calls +180% on 11/2

    * Closed MGM Calls +120% on 10/29

    * Closed IBM Put Spread +67.75% on 10/27

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    * Closed Valeant (VRX) Bear Call Spread +100% on 10/16

    * Closed Juniper (JNPR) Calls +347% on 10/16

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    * Closed Kroger (KR) Puts +100% on 10/14

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    * Closed Union Pacific (UNP) Put Spread +60% on 9/22

    * Closed J&J (JNJ) Strangles +390% on 8/24

    * Closed HR Block (HRB) Calls +139% on 8/5

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    * Closed Teva Pharma (TEVA) Call Spreads +157.5% on 7/27

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    * Closed Delta (DAL) Call Spread +128.5% on 4/15

    * Closed General Electric (GE) Calls +158.8% on 4/10

    * Closed Kraft (KRFT) Calls +620% on 3/25

    * Closed Eli Lilly (LLY) Calls +100% on 3/18

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    * Closed ZIOPHARM (ZIOP) Call Spread of 3/4 at +141%

    * Closed YUM Brands (YUM) Calls +104.44% on 2/25

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    * Closed BlackBerry (BBRY) Put Spread +40% on 2/2

    * Closed Abbot Labs (ABT) Calls +50% on 1/29