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  • Market Views

    6/27/2016

    Technical View:

    Stocks dropped lower on Friday, the Dow closing down over 600 points, after the UK surprised markets by voting to leave the European Union. Financials had their worst day since 2011 with EU-domiciled names down as much as 25% intraday. We closed below the Ichimoku Cloud for the first time since February. The S&P closed above the 200-MA at 2,020.33 and above the May lows at 2,025.91. The Nasdaq showed relative weakness under both the 50-MA and 200-MA and broached the May lows. Friday’s candle left a lot of technical damage but holding the rising channel from the April highs to May lows. Under the May levels opens up a potential retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci at 2,001.96 with 1,993.26 from December 14, 2015 below. Resistance above on a relief rally are the 100-EMA at 2,052.70, the 50% Fibonacci of Friday’s move at 2,067.80, and the 50-EMA at 2,072.70 which is also the midpoint of the channel higher.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment survey showed bulls hitting new 4-week lows down 3.4% to 22%, nearing the May 25 levels of 17.8%. Neutral responses rose 5.7% to 42.8% while bearish sentiment fell 2.3% to 35.2%. The NAAIM Exposure Index fell to 69.35. Lipper Fund Flows showed $6.1B in outflows from equities with $2.5B of inflows to taxable bonds. The percentage of S&P stocks above their 50-day MA dropped to 34.2%, the lowest since February while the percentage above their 200-day MA fell to 62.2%, the lowest since April. NYSE Summation is 772.21, still above the May lows. As of Friday’s close the number of stocks on the NYSE making new highs was 154 versus just 53 new lows while the Nasdaq saw just 46 new highs versus 122 new lows. Cumulative TICK remained near new highs. NYMO closed the week at -21, so potential for more downside early next week before we hit oversold levels.

     

  • Daily Freebies

    June 21st, 2016

    Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) nearing session lows and 1,000 December $40 puts bought from $3.36 to $3.40 to open, shares in a small bear flag and weak under the 200-MA. The company cut their FY view in May.

    Hain Celestial (HAIN) also seeing 2,000 August $55 calls bought to open $1.45/$1.50 with July $55 calls also active, IV rising sharply, and follows rumors last week of potential for M&A. HAINs July IV Skew has completely inverted.

    Altria (MO) buyers active for 10,000 September $67.50 OTM calls $1.53 to $1.55, a name breaking to new highs and has seen longer dated large call buys, some speculation it could seek a large merger in the past. MO now also with a large buy of 10,000 December $67.50 calls $2.40 at the PHLX

    Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) aggressive buyer of 750 November $90 calls $3.20 offer at ISE, a name with 7,500 August $90 calls in OI.

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