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  • Market Views

    11/24/14

    Technical View:  

    The S&P gapped higher Friday and closed below the highs after fading, nearly touching the upper Bollinger Band, and now extended above its rising 8 day EMA, while MACD showing a bearish divergence nearing a negative crossover and RSI very overbought. The move last week also took stocks briefly outside the upper weekly Bollinger Band which had tended to mark tops and then pull back to the 20 week EMA, currently at 1,975. The support levels into this week are 2,040/2,030/2,025/2,000/1,975 while resistance in the 2075/2080 zone remains before 2,100 can be seen.

     

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment move down 8.8% to 49.1%, though still well above its historical average, while bearish sentiment rose 4.5% to 23.8%. The NAAIM Exposure Index pulled back to 72.06 after an extreme reading of 85.43 the prior week, lowest level since 10-22 reading. The most recent fund flows data showed $571M of inflows to equity funds last week, continuing a positive streak, but the lowest number in a few weeks. As of Fridays close 649 stocks traded to new highs and 95 to new lows, a strong ratio, and now 64.6% of stocks are trading above the SMA50. The CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.49, one of the lowest readings in months, and Index Put/Call at 1.06. NYSE Cumulative A/D moved higher last week, yet still not reaching the September high, a negative divergence that persists, and NYMO closed the week at +23.77, slightly overbought. NYSE Summation continues to climb, and until this rolls over below its 5 day EMA, no real reason to short this market. 442 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks are now above the 50 day MA, highest reading since June where a short-term top was forming. The CBOE Skew Index spiked last week, a sign of some fear of a correction, and similar was seen just prior to the last correction. The US economy continues to post powerful data, yet the rest of the World is seeing growth slow and nearing contraction. We have seen the PBOC and BOJ already act, and expect the ECB to be the next to launch added stimulus.

  • Daily Freebies

    November 26th, 2014

    Mylan (MYL) active buyers of 2,700 Jan. 2015 $57.50 calls in early action paying $2.47 to $2.53, and comes after Jefferies laid out the case for Pfizer (PFE) buying out MYL around $70/Share

    Schlumberger (SLB) roll down of 7,000 Dec. $95 puts to the $90 strike

    Assured Guaranty (AGO) running with buyers active for 2,500+ Jan. 2015 425 calls at $1.35 offers, a name with large longer dated size in OI, bullish

    Family Dollar (FDO) jumps as 9,000 Jan. 2015 $80/$85 call spreads buy at $1

  • Strategy of the Month
  • Recent Highlights

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