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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    The S&P put in a strong confirmation candle last week following through the prior week’s defense of major support with a large hammer reversal off key support, and also closing the month maintaining the longer term channel up pattern. The strong move Friday put the S&P back above its 8, 13 and 20 day moving averages. A move above the close from last week puts it into a small volume pocket that lacks any true resistance until the 50 day MA at 2,007.65, though the 8 week EMA at 1,963.5 and weekly cloud resistance at 1,978 are interim resistance levels as well along with 1,950 that was resistance early in January when stocks tried to bounce. The support levels below at 1,915 and 1,875, followed by 1,850 and then the 1,812 low.


    The AAII Sentiment Survey showed a rise in bullish sentiment of 8.2 to 29.8%, still below the 38.7% historical average, while bearish sentiment down 8.7 to 40% remains well above its 30.3% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index which once again was a great contrarian signal as it dropped sharply to 26.3 last week, rebounded to 42.25. Fund flow data showed $1.2B of outflows from equity funds, the fourth straight week of outflows. As of Friday’s close just 23.1% of stocks are trading above the SMA200 and 25.4% above the SMA50. On Friday 175 new highs compared to 155 new lows, the first real sign of strength in that ratio. The Equity Put/Call ratio closed the week at 0.58, lowest level for 2016, and Index Put/Call at 1.11. NYSE Cumulative A/D is confirming the S&P move out of a base as it jumped to the strongest level since early 2016. NYMO finished the week at +58.6, highest reading since October, so stocks are fairly overbought in the near-term. NYSE Summation Index moved off its lows and triggered a buy alert on Thursday as it moved above the 5 day EMA. NYSE Cumulative TICK moved to a new high last week, while the VIX:VXV Ratio sunk to 0.89.

  • Daily Freebies

    February 4th, 2016

    Caterpillar (CAT) opening buy of 5,000 May $62.50 puts at $3.65 mid-market at the CBOE, a name rallying with Industrials, though the fundamental outlook remains very weak

    Boston Scientific (BSX) opening buy 2,500 May $17 calls $1.14 offer with shares at day lows following earnings, down 4.6% but back at potential support

    Target (TGT) with an opening buy of 4,000 February 26th (W) 65 puts this morning, as well as 1,500 of the $70 puts at $2.19, looking for weakness on 2-24 earnings after the Kohls (KSS) nasty warning this morning

    Service Now (NOW) big bearish flow as 5,000 May $50 puts are bought $2.35 to $2.50 to open, shares hit hard on earnings and still down near those lows

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