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Technical View: The S&P saw further technical damage last week as the 1,840/1,880 range broke that measures to a target of 1,800, but looking at the 150 day MA that acted as support in both the October 2013 and February 2014 corrections, and is also right near key longer term trend support (1794), and area of importance for bulls to make a stand, but expecting some early week weakness to continue before a reversal can be found off support. The main levels of support entering the week are 1,800/1,794/1,770, and remember that most of our reversals tend to be sharp and fast, currently needing confirmation of a close above the prior days high in order to get bullish against the lows. On a bounce resistance is likely to be found at prior support levels of 1,825/1,840/1,860. In terms of being oversold with bearish sentiment, we are there, but can use some extreme readings to put in a sustainable low, and that may come as soon as this week if we break 1,800 and see similar action to last week.
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment plunge to 28.5%, down 6.9%, and well below the 39% historical average, while bearish sentiment surged 7.3% to 34.1%, back above the 30.5% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index finished with a reading of 85.2, remains elevated and really would like to see this number move back to 60 for a better reversal signal. The most recent fund flows data showed weekly equity fund inflows of $8.9B. As of Fridays close71 stocks made new highs and 129 at new lows, breadth has been hit hard with the latest week of selling, and currently just 42.8% of stocks are above the SMA50. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio closed the week at 0.75, a bearish extreme, the highest reading since late September, coming about a week before the October bottom. The Index Put/Call closed the week at 0.99, not an extreme, but the S&P did bust to the downside of its Bollinger Bands, which also has typically seen a bottom form for a reversal move. The NYSE cumulative A/D really has not taken a large hit and remains in an uptrend, a bullish divergence, while NYMO finished the week at -47.93, oversold, but not an extreme as -63.73 was hit in February. There is also a bit of a fear extreme with spot VIX trading above 3-month VIX futures, so all the ingredients are there and if we see 1,795 early this week it will be a great spot to put cash to work in names with strong fundamentals.
April 15th, 2014
Northrop Grumman (NOC) trading 4X daily calls as 1,700 May $120 calls are bought to open at $2.30 to $2.45, earnings on 4/23 and shares have closed higher the last 4 reports. The $25.47B Defense Co. trades 12.1X earnings, 1.03X Sales, and 16.2X FCF with a 2.07% yield. On 4-9 Citi boosted its target on NOC to $158 from $135.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) buyers of 2,800 April $95 calls $0.60 offer looking for the CSX read-through tonight on Coal shipments
Reynolds American (RAI) buyers of 4,500 May $55 calls at $1.88 as April $55 call positions are rolled out, shares consolidating well since all of the M&A talk
NXP Semi (NXPI) May $57.50 calls bought 1,500X at $2.75 offers, earnings 4/23 and a name seeing a lot of call activity lately
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