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Technical View: The S&P bounce that took place just above the 125 day MA and the former December 2013 resistance, now support, is shaping up similar to our previous mini-correction bounces with a swift move back to new highs. The four day rally regained all major moving averages and the 8/20 EMA bullish crossover is nearing while daily MACD is near a bullish crossover and RSI back above the 50 level. The overall long term trend of putting in higher lows and higher highs remains, important for the bull market, and current resistance levels of 1,870/1,880/1,890/1,900 while support at 1,850/1,840/1,818/1,800. For the most part of 2014 we have traded in a horizontal range of 1,840/1,880, and an upside breakout targets 1,920, though we likely need the weekly RSI to break above 70 to clear a downtrend. The rally worked off some of the extreme oversold and bearish sentiment readings, and could use a digestion period, also following a seasonal pattern of strength from mid-April to month end.
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment down another 1.3% to 27.2%, well below the 29% historical norm, and bearish sentiment rose slightly to 34.3%, above the 30.5% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index finished at 75.92 last week, a sharp drop from the prior week and the lowest since mid-February. The CNN Far & Greed Index that sunk to 13 near the lows finished the week at 30, still a Fear reading but no longer an extreme. The latest week of fund flows showed $3.6B of outflows from equity funds. As of Fridays close 286 new highs compares to 60 new lows and just 52% of stocks trading above the SMA50, and 68.7% above the SMA200. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio that showed extreme fear last week finished the week at 0.57, a Neutral reading, and Index Put/Call similar at 0.96. NYSE cumulative A/D set a fresh high last week, a bullish divergent that may signal price should follow to new highs, and NYMO closed the week at 14.36, neither overbought or oversold. The situation in the Ukraine remains an overhang for markets, while some fears of a slowdown in growth are subsiding after the latest round of Chinese economic data and US earnings season kicking off strong, while expectations of stimulus in both China and Europe are contributing to the rally, which can be a dangerous proposition if unfulfilled.
April 23rd, 2014
Cognizant Tech (CTSH) trades 2,000 October $52.5/$45 bull risk reversals for a $0.35 debit at the ISE, bullish position ahead of 5/7 earnings
Caesars (CZR) buyer of 5,000 May $20 calls $0.69 to $0.75, already 5,000 May $20/$15 bull risk reversals in OI and buyers of May $17.50 calls recently with OI now above 6,000
DirecTV (DTV) opening buy of 3,000 September $85 calls near $2.10
General Dynamics (GD) reported earnings this morning and shares climbing here to day highs, buyers active for 2,200 May $110 calls at $1.90 to $2.20 offers
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