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  • Market Views

    12/15/14

    Technical View:  

     

    The S&P pulled back 3.5% last week in what was the worst week for markets since 2012, and it came right after Mondays two market sell signals, the NYSE Summation losing its 5 day EMA, and the NYSE Cumulative TICK breaking below its 20 day EMA. The 2,075 level now becomes the major point of resistance to crack, and looks similar to previous sideways tops in this market, while the bearish 8/20 EMA crossover also puts sellers in control until that can reset, so resistance at 2,040 and 2,060 as well. The S&P closed Friday just above its 50 day SMA, but was sliding into the bell, so no telling if that will be supportive, and the 20 week EMA is closer to the 1,990 level, but 1,970 appears more important as a re-test of an October breakout, also 1,980 is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the recent rally that could prove to be pivotal support. The market comes into the week very oversold and seasonality in its favor, but last week featured multiple trend down distribution days, and we need to see healthier action before returning to the bull camp.

     

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment up 2.3% to 45%, above the 39% historical average, and bearish sentiment down 3.6% to 22.3%, well below its 30% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index finished the week at 89, very elevated, and a reason to remain cautious. The most recent fund flow data showed $2.9B of equity fund outflows, breaking a multi-week streak. As of Fridays close 141 new highs compared to 660 new lows, an ugly ratio, and now just 47.2% of stocks above the SMA50 and 46.3% above the SMA200. The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio at 0.79 is elevated to the highest level since October, while Index Put/Call closed the week at 1.07. NYMO closed the week at -63.25, very oversold nearing October lows. NYSE Cumulative TICK closed the week well below its 20 EMA, and need to see it regain that level for bulls to regain control.

  • Daily Freebies

    December 19th, 2014

    Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI) buyer of 12,500 Jan. 2015 $40 puts $1.70, closes out 4,950 of the Dec. $44 puts $2.98, staying bearish with Energy projects likely to impact its outlook

    Yelp (YELP) buyer of 500 next week $53 calls at $1.30 this morning and now buyers surfacing for 2,500+ Feb. 2015 $67.50 OTM calls, speculative OTM calls, a name that has shown plenty of technical weakness, but remains on the radar as a potential acquisition target

    Rice Energy (RICE) buyer of 17,500 April 2015 $25 calls $3.70, rolls out of 20,500 Jan. 2015 $25 calls $1.60

    Burlington Stores (BURL) buyer of 3,500 March 2015 $50 calls at $2.50, rolling up some of the March $45 calls

  • Strategy of the Month
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