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    The premier site for active option and equity traders, providing the fastest, most thorough, and accurate options analytics in the industry.  OptionsHawk is the first, and best, site to provide real-time analysis of Institutional and Unusual options trades.

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    The options market has consistently been a leading indicator of future price movement in stocks. I have consistently been able to predict large stock moves due to takeovers, earnings, technical breaks, and other events that move stocks.

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  • Market Views

    8/11/14

    Technical View:  

     

    The S&P did exactly as expected last week continuing the rally off key support and finished the week with an indecisive candle, rejected at the first major volume by price resistance at 1,960. The 50 day MA at 1,957 also resistance and closed below that level, so that 1,955/1,960 zone in focus to start the week followed by 1,975 and 1,985 levels. MACD finished the week with a bullish crossover on both the lines and histogram, and RSI back above the 50 level. A sideways consolidation may now be in order and watching 1,940 and 1,930 as support levels, while a break of the latter could target the 1,910 level and lead to a new low at 1,895. The bulls are back in control, trading above all major moving averages and the 8 day EMA curling up and looking to move through both the 20 and 50 day EMAs, and the 8/20 EMA bullish crossover has been a strong indicator of a new leg higher to come.

     

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed a rise of 8.9% in bullish sentiment to 39.8%, back in-line with historical averages, and bearish sentiment fell 11.3% to 27%, a sharp drop. The NAAIM Exposure Index remained depressed with a 50.6 reading, a multi-month low. After a $16.4B outflow in equity funds the prior week, one of the largest in recent memory, there was $1.3B of inflows this week. The CNN Fear and Greed Index finished the week at 14, still in Extreme Fear, and the CBOE Skew Index also jumped sharply as hedgers were active. As of Fridays close 320 stocks made new highs and 104 at new lows, while still only 43.9% of stocks are trading above the SMA50 so there is plenty of room for more participation. The CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.63, Neutral reading, and Index Put/Call at 1.19 slightly elevated. NYMO at 29.57 to finish the week became slightly overbought, but NYSE Summation at +100 is rising, and the trigger above its 5 day EMA has been a bullish indicator in the past. NYSE cumulative TICK also made a new high last week. Overall the market remains subject to sharp intraday sell-offs as the geo-political risks remain with the Ukraine/Russia situation in focus, and also concerns with the recent slowdown in the Eurozone coupled with a potential slowdown in China. The US is coming off a strong economic quarter with great earnings, but the Fed outlook is still seen as instrumental to the markets sentiment.

  • Daily Freebies

    August 21st, 2014

    Cornerstone On-Demand (CSOD) with an unusually large spread that buys 1000 November $40 calls at $2.40 to $2.50 and sells 500 November $35 puts to open $2.85 to $2.90. CSOD shares are trying to double bottom on the weekly with the May low. The $1.96B cloud-based talent management solutions Co. trades 8.8X Sales and at this market cap with shares -31.2% YTD, could be a buyout target. On 5-21 FBR started shares Outperform with a $48 target.

    Yahoo (YHOO) active trades in October with the $40/$43/$46 butterfly call spread 25,000X50,000. YHOO shares are consolidating above the recent $37 breakout and looks to be positioning for the Alibaba IPO

    Adobe (ADBE) buyer of 2,000 ITM October $70 calls at $3.65 offer

    Now Inc. (DNOW) unusual buys of 830 November $35 calls at $1 offer. The $3.48B Energy and Industrial products Co. trades 0.83X Sales and 1.78X Book, a recent spin-off of National Oilwell (NOV).

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