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  • Market Views

    7/21/14

    Technical View:  

     

    The S&P touched each side of the range last week as we saw some volatility expansion, a consolidation pattern continues to form and the spread between the 8 and 20 day EMAs narrows, short-term momentum fading slightly. The levels are fairly clear, and easy to trade for a risk standpoint, utilizing the low from last week of 1,955 as important support, and a move below would target the lower Bollinger Band at 1,945, and the 50 day MA is at 1,936.50. Resistance is in the 1,982/1,985 range, and clearing that sets up for a 30 point move to 2,015 as an upside target and aligns closely with the weekly upper Bollinger Band that has acted as resistance on rallies. The 8 week EMA marked the low last week, so a close below breaks some momentum, and then look to the 20 week EMA at 1,910.

     

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment down 5.3% to 32.4%, well below the 29% historical average, and bearish sentiment down 0.2% to 28.5%, near its historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index reading last week was 81.91, in-line with the prior quarter average, and at a 7 week low. Fund flows showed $4.3B of inflows into equity funds, a continuous trend of inflows for many weeks now though in small increments. As of Fridays close 219 stocks made new highs and 74 new lows, while only 58.6% of stocks are trading above the SMA50 and 65.6% above the SMA200. The CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.56, a Neutral reading after an intra-week spike to 0.67 was a solid buy signal for stocks, and Index Put/Call at 1.11 also at a Neutral level. NYSE Cumulative A/D has some work to do, rebounded late last week but well below the 40,700 high, and NYMO at -25.4 still indicates we are fairly oversold, though well off the extreme -62.7 hit earlier in the week. NYSE Summation continues to trend lower, diverging from price, closing the week at 711.7.

  • Daily Freebies

    July 22nd, 2014

    Baidu (BIDU) August $200 calls sell to close 7,800X at $8.225 and the August $220 calls buy to open 15,000X at $2.475, taking a lot off the table into earnings on 7/24, but still long a significant position

    Darden (DRI) August $44 calls buy 2,000X to open at $1 offer with stock on LOD

    TE Connectivity (TEL) opening buy of 2,050 October $70 calls with stock at $64.80, and ahead of 7/23 earnings, buyers paying $0.65 for the calls and a Swiss-domiciled Co. that may be a tax inversion target

    Anadarko Petro (APC) January 2016 $160 calls bought to open 7,500X around $1.50 with shares at $109, expecting major upside in this name and we have seen constant upside call buying

  • Strategy of the Month
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