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  • Market Views

    8/31/15

    Technical View:

    The S&P after a sharp sell-off to start the week rebounded and former a large reversal candle off the 1875 level which is price support from 2013/2014. The bounce may also just be an extreme oversold rally, though a close above the 2000 level would be a positive signal. The support levels below are now at 1,975 and 1,950, a break of the latter sets up for a re-test or break of the 1,875 lows. A 50% retrace is at 2,000 and the 20 day MA sitting up near 2,025, while former support at 2,040 becomes resistance. A 23.6% retracement of the 2011 low to 2015 high put 1,885 as a key level and that was very near to where stocks held lows, the next retracement at 38.2% is down at 1,730.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed a move out of the Neutral camp as that fell 10.6% and bullish sentiment rose 5.7% to 32.5%, while bearish rose 4.9% to 38.3%. The NAAIM Exposure Index continued to plummet as it hit 28.3, lowest since the October 15th, 2014 reading. The latest week of fund flow data showed $17.8B of outflows from equity funds, one of the largest outflows in recent memory. As of Friday’s close 30 new high compared to 36 new lows, improvement in that reading as many lows were put in Monday, yet just 20% of stocks trading above the SMA50. The CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.72, down off its extreme, while Index Put/Call at 1.54 remains very elevated. NYSE Cumulative A/D rebounded sharply but remains in a downtrend, and NYMO closed the week at +20.9, slightly overbought. NYSE Cumulative TICK retook its 20 day EMA on the bounce, but would like to see it above 172,100 to confirm strength. The VIX:VXV ratio at 1.03 off the recent 1.308 extreme, but remaining in backwardation.

  • Daily Freebies

    September 1st,  2015

    Dow Chemical (DOW) spread sells 6,500 December $37 puts to open to buy 6,500 December $43/$48 call spreads, net zero cost for the bull covered risk reversal.

    Gildan (GIL) buyer of 1,000 December $30 calls $2.55, aggressive on a wide bid-ask, and comes after 1,000 bought at $2.50 on 8-27.

    Internap (INAP) trading 70X daily calls with 1,245 October $10 calls trading to open at $0.30 to $0.45, unusual action and shares up 11.8% this morning on strong volume in a weak tape after the Company announced plans to exploring strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value. 

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  • Recent Highlights

    RECENT HIGHLIGHTED TRADES

    * Closed Mondelez (MDLZ) Calls +292.16% on 7/29

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