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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    The S&P put in another losing week as it saw continuation from the rejected bounce the prior week and started to break down out of a bear pennant. All of the daily moving averages are downward sloping, so the trend remains lower since the critical 2,075 long term uptrend snapped. Into this week support levels of note are 1,925/1,890/1,860/1,815. Ultimately this bear pennant measures a move back to 1,700 which would re-test a 2013 breakout, while 1,730 is a key level I have been looking to as well. Resistance levels are at 1,950/1,975/2,000.


    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed Bullish sentiment decline 1.1 to 32.1% and Bearish sentiment down 0.4 to 28.7%, each below historical norms while Neutral sentiment at 39.2% is well above its 31% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index reading hit a fresh low for the year at 21.34, only the 10/15/14 reading lower, and would have to go back to October 2011 for a reading this low. In terms of fund flows, there were $2B of outflows from equity funds last week. As of Friday’s close 66 new highs compared to 314 new lows and just 24.3% of stocks are trading above the 50 day MA and 24.8% above the 200 day MA. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio closed the week at 0.74, Neutral reading, while Index Put/Call at 1.39 hit a 2 week high. NYSE Cumulative A/D has started to weaken and NYSE Summation has flattened out after a recent move off lows. NYSE Cumulative TICK broke below its 20 day EMA on Friday giving a fresh sell signal, while the VIX:VXV ratio at 0.97 remains fairly tame. Although the US posted better than expected Durable Goods Orders and GDP last week, the concern continues to focus on global growth with China PMI hitting a 6.5 year low, and also uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Fed lift-off, and whether it is even necessary.

  • Daily Freebies

    September 30th,  2015

    Generac (GNRC) trading 3,300 October $30 calls today ahead of an expected Hurricane this weekend

    Russell 2000 (IWM) two large trades today, Oct. 30th (W) $114 puts close 33K and buy 40K of the $109 puts, also 30K Dec. 31 (Q) / June 2016 $100 Put Calendar 30,000X

    ARC Document Solutions (ARC) very unusual buyer of 1,250 February $5 calls for $1.10 to open on a wide 0.20x1.30 spread, 250X average call volume and more than all of open interest combined. The $242.5M company provides document solutions with end-market exposure in architecture, engineering and construction industries. Shares trades at 8.97X forward earnings, 0.56X sales and 6.6X free cash flow with strong earnings growth over the last year.

    Autodesk (ADSK) trades 3,000 January 2017 $60/$35 bull risk reversals to open at $0.21 debits. ADSK nice long-term view in a name that is undergoing a business model transition; JPM note yesterday after Analyst Day says the companys revenue and margin guidance was a major step as it was one of the clearest view the company has given yet as to how it views the transition over the next five years

  • Site News

    *Vacation September 2nd - September 7th

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