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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    After a strong rally in stocks last week the S&P is back near that key high volume bar of resistance for 2015, a level near 2,115, while 2,125/2,130 stands as resistance for new highs. The dip reversed strongly to start the week right above the 50 day MA, a level that is now 2,020 and considered major support on weakness, while 2,078 and 2,060 are also support levels to be aware. MACD is nearing a bullish crossover on the daily which could help accelerate a move above resistance. Stocks have moved out of an extreme oversold level to a more neutral level, and price-action was very healthy all last week with multiple trend up accumulation days.


    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows bullish sentiment down 3.5 to 30.8% and bearish sentiment rose 7.5 to 30.5%, the former well below its 38.75% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index last week came in at 58.47, down from the prior week reading of 68.58. The latest week of fund flows showed outflows of $2.2B in equity funds, the second straight week of outflows. As of Friday’s close 192 new highs compared to 188 new lows, mixed participation and stocks above the SMA50 and SMA200 at 55.6% and 37.1% respectively. The CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.67 while Index Put/Call at an elevated 1.43. NYSE Cumulative A/D remains well off the recent November high, questioning the underlying strength of last week’s move and NYSE Summation has also weakened significantly but is trying to make a positive turn. NYSE Cumulative TICK is nearing a new high, a strong signal, though the VIX:VXV ratio back down to 0.82 showing a bit of complacency in the market.

  • Daily Freebies

    November 25th, 2015

    Dow Chemical (DOW) shares lower today after the EPA revoked its Enlist Duo Herbicide, but a name that has been very strong lately, and trading more than 14,000 January $52.50 calls today into weakness, also the February 2016 $55/$62.5 call spread just bought 10,000X at $1.37. Dow Chemical (DOW) with a buyer of 6,500 February 2016 $52.50 calls at $2.65 at the ISE as large positions continue to accumulate with some M&A expected in the group.

    Hilton (HLT) breaking to day lows with 10,000 April 2016 $21 puts bought to open $0.85 to $0.95, trading 10X daily puts. HLT recently reported a data breach.

    Carnival (CCL) now with a large put purchase as well as 5,000 April 2016 $46 puts are bought $1.67 to $1.70 to open at the PHLX and ISE

    BioMarin (BMRN) opening sale of over 1,000 Jan. 2016 $85 puts at $3.80 to $3.60 into recent weakness on negative FDA Panel for its DMD treatment. OpCo lowered its target to $115 this morning seeing accelerated approval at risk.

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