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  • Market Views

    5/18/15

    Technical View:

    The S&P closed the week with new closing highs, but remained in the multi-week choppy range that has been a frustrating period. If the market starts to pull back in the 2,110 and 2,100 levels should be supportive, and now ultimately 2,060 is the level that a break below would start a move back to the 200 day MA at 2,033 and likely test 2,000. If the market can clear this range the measured move target is up in the 2,170-2,180 zone, while 2,138.50 intermediate resistance, and that target would align with the longer term channel up pattern that remains in play. RSI started to break above its multi-week tight range Friday and MACD climbing, a favorable set-up to enable this breakout to stick.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment down to 26.7% and bearish sentiment down to 26.4%, both remain well below historical norms, while Neutral sentiment rose to 46.9%, well above its 30.8% average. The NAAIM Exposure Index plunged to 60.38 last week, a healthy signal for the market as the timing of these active managers tends to be a contrarian signal, lowest level seen in 2015. Fund Flow data showed $3.7B inflows into equity funds last week. As of Friday’s close 298 new highs compared to 69 new lows, and still just 58% of stocks trading above the 50 day MA. CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week 0.56, near multi-week lows, while Index Put/Call jumped back to 1.29 on Friday. NYSE Cumulative A/D rebounded and is nearing April highs, and NYSE Summation after falling sharply is starting to recover. NYSE Cumulative TICK made a fresh high Friday, showing underlying momentum higher. The VIX:VXV ratio closed the week at 0.795, and tends to be a level where markets pull back a bit and see some volatility creep back in.

  • Daily Freebies

    May 22nd, 2015

    Lions-Gate (LGF) with 6,500 July $35 calls bought to open $0.60 to $0.70 as bullish action continues in this name, strong today, and a recent JANA Partners add that may look to merge it with Starz

    Palo Alto Networks (PANW) buyer of 1,000 July $175 calls for $3.10 offer, reports 5/27. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) buyer of 3,550 July $165 calls $6.50, closing out June $155 calls $10.40, follows the 1,000 July $175 calls bought this morning

    Shire (SHPG) with 2,400 OTM July $300 calls bought today $0.40 to $0.50, one of the companies noted in the Bloomberg Pfizer (PFE) mega-deal report

    Pioneer Natural (PXD) with 4,500 May 29th (W) $150 puts bought to open this morning $0.70 to $0.80, a recent Ackman short target. Shares are basing above $150, so on alert for a break of support next week

    Fire-Eye (FEYE) with 3,725 September $45 calls bought at $4.60 offer in a large sweep, bullish action continues with shares breaking out, positive comments from Hewlett Packard from its recent alliance, and FEYE also has received takeover interest but wants to hit $1B revenues first, which is double current sales.

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