Weekly Market View 11-21-21
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed modestly higher last week as we oscillated around the key 4,700 level into options expiration. We ran right into trend resistance off the May and September highs while MACD and RSI are both extended in the short-term, so combined the two continue to present a poor risk/reward for longer-term swing positions. We continued to hold the rising 8-EMA all week, a key spot to watch for short-term sentiment to change, and a break below the 4682 level could lead to a deeper pullback. There’s a composite VPOC from the 11/10 to 11/12 lows near 4648.75 and then the rising 21-EMA at 4631.75 and the 55-EMA at 4537 are both in focus. A move higher above the 4705-4700 zone has room to move back into resistance near 4718.75 and then new highs. Upside targets include 4732.75 and then 4743. The current bull flag targets a move to 4790.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 11/17 showed a decline in bulls to 38.8% from 48% while neutral sentiment rose to 33.9% from 28% and bears rose to 27.2% from 24%. NAAIM Exposure fell modestly to 102.54 and remains highly elevated at the top of the normal range. Lipper Fund flows had $465M in outflows this week, the first outflows in over seven weeks. As of Friday’s close there were 291 new highs vs 426 new lows, weakening breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA fell sharply to 54.8% while those above their 200-day was 57.87%, the lowest level since early October. NYSI and NASI both fell last week and below the 8-EMA for the first time since early October, a sign of caution. Cumulative AD rolled hard off of 52-week highs and back at its lowest level in a month. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.466 and remains near three-month lows. CNN Fear and Greed is 69, down from 83 last week. VIX:VXV ratio is 0.817, overly complacent.