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Weekly Market View 3-17-24

Weekly Market View 3-17-24

by | Mar 17, 2024 | Weekly Market View

The SPX closed a volatile week basically unchanged and down slightly by -0.13% overall after seeing an early week bounce fade just before the prior week’s high so technically an inside week candle printed showing indecision. That is two weekly candles in a row now with upper shadows or selling tails showing some decent resistance in this 5150-5175 range. The SPX now enters a crucial post triple witching OPEX week that is highlighted by the FOMC meeting midweek and the early week NVDA event. Momentum is slowing into quarter end and Friday closed below the 8 day EMA so the next level of support at the 21 EMA lines up at 5090 with the early March low at 5056 and should be a key line in sand from a options market perspective as well with 5100 an important gamma level to hold onto. Below likely can see a swift selloff materialize back to 5000 as a target below here which would also line up with the open gap that is yet to be filled from 2/21 and technically sits at 4982. MACD has also crossed lower which shows the slowing momentum and RSI fading back to one-month lows. While price is what matters, there is clear resistance showing up in the 5150 zone and now seasonal forces tend to be a drag into the final two weeks of the quarter so definitely bears watching for a normal dip.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 3/13 showed bullish responses fell to 45.9% from 51.7% prior while bearish responses increased to 21.9% from 21.8%. Neutral sentiment rose sharply to 32.2% from 26.5%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.0 percentage points to 24.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 19th consecutive week. The NAAIM Exposure index increased to 104.75 from 93.99 last week and is now well above last quarter’s average of 67.81 and the highest reading since 11/3/2021. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 3/6 had $-4.9 billion of outflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 106 while new lows of 53 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is still positive at +178. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 70.6% while those above their 200-MA was 78.0%. NYSI Summation index started to fade lower but remains above its 8-MA for a short term buy signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at -12 and Neutral. The cumulative AD line decreased slightly this week but is still well above the 40 EMA short term breadth and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.66. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Greed zone at 70 from 66 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.878. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 exhibits fear and tends to mark a low.