A Curated Platform of Equity & Options Market Intelligence
Select Page

Weekly Market View 3-3-24

Weekly Market View 3-3-24

by | Mar 3, 2024 | Weekly Market View

The SPX closed higher for the week by just about +1% and most of that gain coming Friday as the index closed at fresh highs after a largely quieter early week that consolidated on top of weekly value support and the 8 EMA held a midweek dip before PCE inflation data came inline with expectations. Not much has changed the past week as the SPX continues to grind up into the all-important March triple witching OPEX in less than two weeks now, with this weeks key catalyst being non-farm payrolls on Friday and then the next CPI report the week following. Support is key to hold at 5055 last weeks low while a deeper pullback would likely target a gap fill into 4980. Any weekly close back under the 5000 line in sand level now warrants caution as a lot of gamma has built up into that level now as a ‘higher floor’. Upside from here is based off of options open interest and gamma resistance which comes in next at 5150 and then 5200. The RSI tried to pop higher and closed back at 70 which is overbought while the MACD spins sideways mostly. Looking out a few weeks or months the biggest downside support is now the former all time high at 4800 which lines up with that January breakout level and close to the 38.2% fib retracement of the entire rally from the Oct lows which has now eclipsed 1000 S&P points or about +25% in 4 months’ time. If there were a springtime correction due the 4800 level would be a target.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 2/28 showed bullish responses rise to 46.5% from 44.3% prior while bearish responses decreased to 21.3% from 26.2%. Neutral sentiment rose to 32.2% from 29.5%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 7.1 percentage points to 25.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 17th consecutive week. The NAAIM Exposure index increased to 88.99 from 74.70 last week and is now well above last quarter’s average of 67.81 and into bullish extreme zones. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 2/21 had $+1.5 billion of inflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 271 while new lows of 25 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is still positive at +167. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 69.2% while those above their 200-MA was 75.6%. NYSI Summation index remains choppy but is above its 8-MA for a short term buy signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +19 and Neutral. The cumulative AD line increased this week and is above the 40 EMA short term breadth and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.66. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Extreme Greed zone at 77 from 78 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.878. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 exhibits fear and tends to mark a low.