The S&P (SPX) fell for the fifth straight week undercutting the January and February lows and near the channel low from the January peak. More speculative areas of the market were hit hard on Friday as well including biotech which hit a new 1-year low. We remain below the notable short-term moving averages with the declining 21-EMA acting as resistance on Wednesday and now trading below a multi-week value range as pressure remains to the downside. Downside areas of interest including 4,000, 3,935, and then 3,900. We’re back at a notable low-volume gap from March 2021 which runs from 4055-4000 which could trigger a nice bounce back. This is also aligning with the channel low and potential to re-test the 8-EMA at 4195 and then up to the key resistance from last week at 4265-4300. Momentum remains weak with both MACD and RSI is bearish trends but nearing oversold levels where we could see a constructive turnaround.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 5/4 saw bullish sentiment rise to 26.9% vs 16.4% prior while bearish sentiment fell to 52.9% vs 59.4%. Neutral sentiment is 20.3% and down from 24.2%, a new 18-month low. NAAIM Exposure rose modestly to 57.18 from 46.25 and remains near the low-end of the longer-term range. Lipper Fund flows had $2.3B of outflows again this week and now $35.4B in outflows over the last four weeks. As of Friday’s close there were 68 new highs versus 2,022 new lows, continued weak breadth. The percentage of stocks below their 50-MA was 80.9% while those below their 200-day was 79.6%. NYSI fell again to -594.95 and remains well below its 8-EMA in a bearish signal. Cumulative AD fell to new six month lows. NYMO was -22.25 and remains neutral. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.63 and remaining neutral. CNN Fear and Greed was 31 and up from 27 a week ago.