Weekly Market View 8-15-21
The S&P 500 (SPX) had a quiet week overall finishing with four straight sessions higher and VPOC rising all week as buyers remain in control of the short-term momentum. The rising 8-EMA was supportive all week and remains key below at 4435 while the 21- and 55-EMA remain in strong trends higher since late June. Momentum has quieted down quite a bit with MACD basically flat around recent highs and RSI slowly moving higher and now above 67, neither ‘overbought’ but the latter is moving closer to historically high levels. A concern remains the rising wedge from the May lows and closing near resistance on Friday, so risk/reward remains less favorable for longer-term swings. The current flag has a measured move to 4480.25 and the July range measures out to 4544. A move below the 8-EMA has room to the 21-day at 4400 which also aligns with the recent two-week VPOC.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 8/11 showed another small increase in bulls to 37% from 36.1% — its highest level in five weeks — while bearish sentiment fell to 31.5% vs 31.7%. Neutral sentiment fell to 31.5% from 32.2%. NAAIM Exposure remains elevated at 97.55, an area that can often precede a pullback in equities. Lipper Fund flows had $4.2B of inflows for the week, the third straight week of positive flows. As of Friday’s close there were 554 new highs vs 198 new lows, strong breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA rose to 54.02%, the highest since early July. Those above their 200-day MA was 70.17% and remains near its lowest level of 2021. NYSI closed higher for the week and now above its 8-EMA. Cumulative AD continues to climb higher but still below its peak in June. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.491 and rising a bit. CNN Fear and Greed was 43 and up from 36 previously.