Weekly Market View 9-12-2021
S&P (SPX) closed the week poorly breaking below all of its shorter-term moving averages and looking at the rising 55-day moving average that aligns with the OpEx-week lows from May and July trend support near 4415 as potential support early this week. A bullish inflection would occur on a move back above 4535 and set up for a higher-high. The SPY 444.2 level is 1-month VPOC and there is a small gap to fill at 443.75, a level we could see act as support on a weak start to the week. Other notable levels are provided below and really into this week have to be cautious with the sell-signal in place and look for a nice 195-minute reversal candle off a key support.
AAII Sentiment for the week ended 9/8 was 38.9% Bullish to 27.2% Bearish, a sharp jump in Neutral to 33.9% from 23.2% the week prior while Bearish below its historical average and at a 1-month low. NAAIM Exposure Index dipped to 84.68, a three-week low, though remains elevated above the 81.2 quarterly average. Lipper Fund Flows showed $1.1B of equity fund inflows for the week after $12.7B the week prior. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index closed the week at 34, an indication of Fear in the market with the VIX surging to close the week near 21. CBOE’s Put/Call ratio 50-day moving average at 0.51 is at the highest level of 2021. As of Friday’s close we had 190 new highs to 59 new lows while 56% of stocks are above the 200-day moving average and 46.5% above the 50-day. S&P 500 stocks below the 50-day is below the mid-August sell-off level yet the overall market is higher, a bearish divergence. NYSI broke back under its 8-day moving average to close the week along with the S&P closing under its 8-MA, a sell signal in effect. NYSE Cumulative A/D pulled back but remains above the 89-day EMA, so no fresh sell-signal and the only sell signal with that indicator came just ahead of the March 2020 drawdown. NYMO finished the week -24.25, a slightly oversold market. TRIN is not yet giving any new signals, the 55-MA is 1.098. The VIX/VXV ratio pushed up to 0.9 to close the week, with a reading above 1 often a short-term buy signal.